Simulating future flood risks under climate change in the source region of the Indus River

Pakistan experiences extreme flood events almost every year during the monsoon season. Recently, flood events have become more disastrous as their frequency and magnitude have increased due to climate change. This situation is further worsened due to the limited capacity of existing water reservoirs and their ability to absorb and mitigate peak floods. Thus, the simulation of stream flows using projected data from climate models is essential to assess flood events and proper water resource management in the country. This study investigates the future floods (in near future and far future periods) using the integrated flood analysis system (IFAS) model under the RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 climate change scenarios. Downscaled and bias corrected climatic data of six general circulation models and their ensemble were used in this study. The IFAS model simulated the stream flow efficiently (R2 = 0.86–0.93 and Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency = 0.72–0.92) in the Jhelum River basin (JRB), Kabul River basin (KRB), and upper Indus River basin (UIRB) during the calibration and validation periods. The simulation results of the model showed significant impact of projected climate change on stream flows that will cause the mean monthly stream flow in the JRB to be lower, while that of the KRB and UIRB to be higher than that of the historical period. The highest flow months are expected to shift from May–June (Jhelum basin) and June–July (Kabul basin) to April–May with no changes in the UIRB. Higher frequencies of low to medium floods are projected in the KRB and UIRB, while the JRB expects fewer flood events. Based on the results from the IFAS model, it is concluded that stream flow in the study area will increase with several flood events.